Supply Chain

India retail inflation seen at 4.9 percent in August

Mint poll of 21 economists projects 20-month high on food prices, lifting input costs just before festive buying.

Farhan Qureshi, Supply chain correspondent·12 September 2026·4 min read

Open sacks of grains and vegetables under market canopy light

India’s retail inflation likely rose to a 20-month high of 4.9 percent in August from 4.5 percent in July, according to a Mint poll of 21 economists released on 11 September. Food prices and deficient rainfall were the main drivers; official data is due on 14 September.

The consensus print of 4.9 percent would mark the third consecutive month above the RBI’s 4 percent target and the highest in the current CPI series. Food inflation had already climbed to 5.5 percent in July.

A kirana till or dark-store picker will feel it first in sugar, oils and staples; several chains earlier capped pack sizes when prices spiked. Higher wholesale costs feed straight into MRP decisions or margin compression.

Retail inflation likely hit 4.9 percent in August on food prices.

Modern trade and quick-commerce platforms face the same squeeze on private-label and fresh categories, while value retailers with strong private brands may pass through less. Exporters and packaged-goods firms watch the number for pricing power.

The 14 September CPI release and the subsequent festive fortnight will show whether the uptick sticks or eases with better arrivals.

Filed under Supply Chain·Farhan Qureshi

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